Experts give mostly positive outlook in 2012

Good to see people have a positive outlook for 2012, however my question to all is, What has changed from 2008 to now for anyone to believe that the economic climate will be better than we have seen over the past few years?  Other than the Shale play, which has positive and negative consequences for our region, what else is going on that paints such a rosy picture for the near future?  My suggestion: run a lean business based on the realistic approach of a continued soft market for the year ahead.

The national political landscape remains a big question mark, but there's a mostly positive outlook on the Pittsburgh economy in 2012, according to a quartet of business experts.

The predictions were made Wednesday afternoon at the 32nd Pittsburgh Business Times Corridors of Opportunity series.

Stuart Hoffman, senior vice president and chief economist, PNC Financial Services Group Inc., expects the local unemployment rate in 2012 to fall slightly.

“It’ll be another year of recovery for the region’s economy,” he said. Hoffman is looking for a “fairly broad-based” uptick across industry sectors, though he does not anticipate much growth in construction. The main Downtown project is his own company’s: PNC is building a new headquarters tower.

Robert Fragasso, chairman and CEO of Fragasso Financial Advisors Fragasso Financial Advisors, emphasized the cyclical nature of the economy. The packaging is different, he said, but “it isn’t anything different from anything that’s happened before.”

Jeffrey Ackerman, executive vice president, CBRE Inc., spoke of the booming real estate developments in such areas as Cranberry, Oakland and Southpointe. “I feel like I have one foot on hot coals,” he said, but also said activity “is still soft” in other neighborhoods.

“Most important for us is job growth,” Ackerman said. “Any time a job is added, someone has to lease or occupy more commercial real estate.”

He foresees rising rents and falling vacancies in 2012.

“If you’re a tenant — don’t tell your landlord — lock in your long-term lease,” he said.

The panel also included Godfrey Phillips, vice president of research, The Business Journals, who is based in New York and offered the perspective of small business owners across the country gleaned from his research. Phillips said small business owners were largely optimistic — though slightly but not dramatically — less so than a year ago.
All cited the wildcard of the political climate with an upcoming presidential election.

“I’d hope for the political process to improve (in 2012) with quality people in office,” Phillips said.

Hoffman advised the audience to keep an eye on what elected officials do in the waning weeks of 2011 “before they get out of town” for holiday break, “with tax expedition policy.”

Fragasso pointed out that the stock market volatility was largely linked to conditions with the European union, but that American investors should view Europe as “a sideshow” and remain focused.

“Watch yourself,” he said. “Watch your own attitude."

The event was held Wednesday at the Westin Convention Center Hotel in Downtown Pittsburgh.

Gateway Engineers was the presenting sponsor. Sponsors included Desmone and Associates Architects, Tucker Arensberg PC, Peoples Natural Gas and NAIOP Pittsburgh.

Read more http://www.bizjournals.com/pittsburgh/news/2011/12/14/corridors-bright-spots-for-pittsburgh.html